Esports World Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Wildcard#46 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 10:13
FURIA#4 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FURIA ban
44%50%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge FURIA +6%FURIA · 4 maps
InfernoFURIA ban
50%43%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +7%FURIA · 3 maps
MirageWildcard ban
50%67%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge FURIA +17%FURIA · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%57%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge FURIA +7%FURIA · 3 maps
OverpassWildcard ban
50%71%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge FURIA +21%FURIA · 3 maps
AnubisWildcard ban
50%33%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +17%FURIA · 2 maps
CacheFURIA ban
50%40%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +10%FURIA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Anubis
2. BanFURIA remove Inferno
3. BanWildcard remove Overpass
4. BanFURIA remove Cache
5. BanWildcard remove Mirage
6. BanFURIA remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Wildcard 57%FURIA 43%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 94%
Series resultFURIA 10:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1