XSE Pro League Guangzhou 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Alliance#22 in the world · win 13:3series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 13:3
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 3:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeAlliance ban
57%78%
Alliance · 10 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +21%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%45%
Alliance · 7 mapsedge Alliance +10%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 maps
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas ban
36%50%
Alliance · 7 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +14%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
80%50%
Alliance · 11 mapsedge Alliance +30%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
50%33%
Alliance · 6 mapsedge Alliance +17%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
MirageAlliance ban
50%50%
Alliance · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 maps
OverpassAlliance ban
29%50%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +21%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
3. BanAlliance remove Overpass
4. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
5. BanAlliance remove Nuke
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (55% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Alliance 59%Ninjas in Pyjamas 41%
The model gave 59% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 56%
Series resultAlliance 13:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1