AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSuba#293 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LPH#150 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoeSuba pick
50%60%
eSuba · 2 mapsedge LPH +10%LPH · 1 map
Dust2LPH ban
40%60%
eSuba · 1 mapedge LPH +20%LPH · 1 map
AncienteSuba ban
50%60%
eSuba · 0 mapsedge LPH +10%LPH · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BaneSuba remove Ancient
2. BanLPH remove Dust2
3. PickeSuba take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
eSuba 47%LPH 53%
The model gave 53% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
eSuba 33%LPH 67%
The model gave 67% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 59%
Series resultLPH 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2