Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
pre-match prediction
STATE#173 in the worldseries probability
40%60%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
ENCE#135 in the worldBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE ban
67%41%
STATE · 2 mapsedge STATE +26%ENCE · 18 maps
NukeSTATE pick
60%56%
STATE · 6 mapsnearly even +4%ENCE · 12 maps
AncientENCE ban
44%50%
STATE · 5 mapsedge ENCE +6%ENCE · 8 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
40%64%
STATE · 1 mapedge ENCE +24%ENCE · 7 maps
InfernoENCE pick
50%80%
STATE · 2 mapsedge ENCE +30%ENCE · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%63%
STATE · 1 mapnearly even -3%ENCE · 4 maps
OverpassSTATE ban
40%60%
STATE · 1 mapedge ENCE +20%ENCE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Anubis
2. BanENCE remove Mirage
3. PickSTATE take Nuke
4. PickENCE take Inferno
5. BanENCE remove Ancient
6. BanSTATE remove Overpass
DeciderCache (60% / 63%)