XSE Pro League Guangzhou 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Luminosity#30 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 10:13
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLuminosity ban
50%77%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +27%Nemesis · 9 maps
AncientNemesis ban
50%50%
Luminosity · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nemesis · 8 maps
MirageLuminosity ban
50%67%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Nemesis · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%64%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Nemesis · 7 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
50%50%
Luminosity · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nemesis · 6 maps
OverpassNemesis ban
50%43%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Luminosity +7%Nemesis · 3 maps
DefaultLuminosity ban
50%67%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Nemesis · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Nuke
2. BanNemesis remove Overpass
3. BanLuminosity remove Default
4. BanNemesis remove Ancient
5. BanLuminosity remove Mirage
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (50% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Luminosity 36%Nemesis 64%
The model gave 64% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteLuminosity · 73%
Series resultNemesis 10:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1