European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
43%67%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsedge Misa +24%Misa · 14 maps
NukeMisa ban
63%46%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Misa · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%46%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +14%Misa · 9 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy ban
60%44%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +16%Misa · 5 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%40%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Misa · 6 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 0 maps
DefaultInner Circle Academy pick
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Default
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (60% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed19:15
Inner Circle Academy 25%Misa 75%
The model gave 75% on Misa — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Inner Circle Academy 68%Misa 32%
The model gave 68% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 62%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2