ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEXODIA ban
79%50%
Galorys · 15 mapsedge Galorys +29%EXODIA · 0 maps
Dust2EXODIA pick
47%50%
Galorys · 11 mapsnearly even -3%EXODIA · 0 maps
AnubisGalorys pick
50%50%
Galorys · 8 mapsnearly even +0%EXODIA · 0 maps
NukeEXODIA ban
64%50%
Galorys · 7 mapsedge Galorys +14%EXODIA · 0 maps
CacheGalorys ban
63%50%
Galorys · 4 mapsedge Galorys +13%EXODIA · 0 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
38%50%
Galorys · 4 mapsedge EXODIA +12%EXODIA · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Galorys · 1 mapedge Galorys +10%EXODIA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Inferno
2. BanEXODIA remove Ancient
3. PickGalorys take Anubis
4. PickEXODIA take Dust2
5. BanEXODIA remove Nuke
6. BanGalorys remove Cache
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Galorys 44%EXODIA 56%
The model gave 56% on EXODIA — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Galorys 81%EXODIA 19%
The model gave 81% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 79%
Series resultGalorys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2