ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKeyd Stars pick
43%55%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Keyd Stars +12%Keyd Stars · 18 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
33%53%
Grêmio · 5 mapsedge Keyd Stars +20%Keyd Stars · 15 maps
Dust2possible decider
42%36%
Grêmio · 8 mapsedge Grêmio +6%Keyd Stars · 7 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
58%30%
Grêmio · 8 mapsedge Grêmio +28%Keyd Stars · 6 maps
NukeKeyd Stars ban
38%33%
Grêmio · 4 mapsedge Grêmio +5%Keyd Stars · 8 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
50%67%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge Keyd Stars +17%Keyd Stars · 5 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
38%40%
Grêmio · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickKeyd Stars take Ancient
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Nuke
6. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (42% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Grêmio 79%Keyd Stars 21%
The model gave 79% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Grêmio 53%Keyd Stars 47%
The model gave 53% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 62%
Series resultKeyd Stars 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2