ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Procyon#119 in the world · win 2:1series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
33%62%
Procyon · 11 mapsedge ALKA +29%ALKA · 22 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%43%
Procyon · 7 mapsedge Procyon +12%ALKA · 17 maps
InfernoProcyon pick
54%63%
Procyon · 9 mapsedge ALKA +9%ALKA · 12 maps
MirageALKA ban
67%50%
Procyon · 5 mapsedge Procyon +17%ALKA · 10 maps
NukeProcyon ban
38%55%
Procyon · 4 mapsedge ALKA +17%ALKA · 7 maps
CacheProcyon ban
50%50%
Procyon · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ALKA · 6 maps
AnubisALKA ban
50%50%
Procyon · 4 mapsnearly even +0%ALKA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanProcyon remove Cache
2. BanALKA remove Anubis
3. PickProcyon take Inferno
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Mirage
6. BanProcyon remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (55% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
Procyon 44%ALKA 56%
The model gave 56% on ALKA — the map was taken by Procyon.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Procyon 22%ALKA 78%
The model gave 78% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Procyon 33%ALKA 67%
The model gave 67% on ALKA — the map was taken by Procyon.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 72%
Series resultProcyon 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3