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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
DAMAJUANA#232 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheDAMAJUANA pick
50%57%
DAMAJUANA · 2 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +7%Bounty Hunters · 19 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%48%
DAMAJUANA · 2 mapsnearly even +2%Bounty Hunters · 17 maps
NukeBounty Hunters pick
33%56%
DAMAJUANA · 2 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +23%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
AncientDAMAJUANA ban
50%36%
DAMAJUANA · 0 mapsedge DAMAJUANA +14%Bounty Hunters · 10 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
43%60%
DAMAJUANA · 3 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +17%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
Dust2DAMAJUANA ban
50%42%
DAMAJUANA · 0 mapsedge DAMAJUANA +8%Bounty Hunters · 8 maps
DefaultBounty Hunters ban
67%50%
DAMAJUANA · 2 mapsedge DAMAJUANA +17%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDAMAJUANA remove Dust2
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Default
3. PickDAMAJUANA take Cache
4. PickBounty Hunters take Nuke
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
6. BanDAMAJUANA remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 48%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
DAMAJUANA 55%Bounty Hunters 45%
The model gave 55% on DAMAJUANA — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
DAMAJUANA 41%Bounty Hunters 59%
The model gave 59% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 69%
Series resultBounty Hunters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2