ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
XDM#222 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Huns#123 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2XDM ban
50%52%
XDM · 2 mapsnearly even -2%The Huns · 17 maps
NukeThe Huns pick
57%56%
XDM · 3 mapsnearly even +1%The Huns · 14 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
63%27%
XDM · 4 mapsedge XDM +36%The Huns · 11 maps
MirageThe Huns ban
33%33%
XDM · 5 mapsnearly even +0%The Huns · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%54%
XDM · 3 mapsnearly even +3%The Huns · 9 maps
CacheXDM ban
40%56%
XDM · 1 mapedge The Huns +16%The Huns · 5 maps
OverpassXDM pick
50%60%
XDM · 0 mapsedge The Huns +10%The Huns · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXDM remove Cache
2. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
3. PickXDM take Overpass
4. PickThe Huns take Nuke
5. BanThe Huns remove Mirage
6. BanXDM remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (57% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
XDM 84%The Huns 16%
The model gave 84% on XDM — the map was taken by XDM.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
XDM 50%The Huns 50%
The model gave 50% on XDM — the map was taken by The Huns.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
XDM 48%The Huns 52%
The model gave 52% on The Huns — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 58%
Series resultThe Huns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3