ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Legion#206 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Kaleido pick
55%44%
Kaleido · 7 mapsedge Kaleido +11%Legion · 5 maps
AncientLegion ban
53%50%
Kaleido · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Legion · 0 maps
InfernoLegion ban
42%40%
Kaleido · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Legion · 1 map
CacheKaleido ban
25%33%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge Legion +8%Legion · 2 maps
MirageLegion pick
57%67%
Kaleido · 3 mapsedge Legion +10%Legion · 2 maps
NukeKaleido ban
50%50%
Kaleido · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Legion · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%40%
Kaleido · 1 mapnearly even +0%Legion · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Cache
2. BanLegion remove Ancient
3. PickKaleido take Dust2
4. PickLegion take Mirage
5. BanLegion remove Inferno
6. BanKaleido remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Kaleido 57%Legion 43%
The model gave 57% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Kaleido 43%Legion 57%
The model gave 57% on Legion — the map was taken by Legion.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
Kaleido 50%Legion 50%
The model gave 50% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Legion.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 57%
Series resultLegion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3