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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJust Swing ban
45%74%
Just Swing · 7 mapsedge NEXVOID +29%NEXVOID · 15 maps
InfernoNEXVOID pick
50%63%
Just Swing · 4 mapsedge NEXVOID +13%NEXVOID · 15 maps
Dust2NEXVOID ban
40%42%
Just Swing · 6 mapsnearly even -2%NEXVOID · 8 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
67%25%
Just Swing · 5 mapsedge Just Swing +42%NEXVOID · 4 maps
NukeJust Swing pick
67%40%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +27%NEXVOID · 6 maps
AnubisJust Swing ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 0 mapsnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Just Swing · 1 mapnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
2. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
3. PickJust Swing take Nuke
4. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
5. BanNEXVOID remove Dust2
6. BanJust Swing remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Just Swing 87%NEXVOID 13%
The model gave 87% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Just Swing 34%NEXVOID 66%
The model gave 66% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Just Swing 23%NEXVOID 77%
The model gave 77% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 65%
Series resultNEXVOID 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3