ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · win 2:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMETANOIA Wolves pick
64%52%
METANOIA Wolves · 7 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +12%Keyd Stars · 19 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
14%50%
METANOIA Wolves · 10 mapsedge Keyd Stars +36%Keyd Stars · 16 maps
Dust2possible decider
41%42%
METANOIA Wolves · 13 mapsnearly even -1%Keyd Stars · 8 maps
NukeKeyd Stars ban
38%33%
METANOIA Wolves · 4 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +5%Keyd Stars · 8 maps
InfernoMETANOIA Wolves ban
38%36%
METANOIA Wolves · 4 mapsnearly even +2%Keyd Stars · 7 maps
AnubisKeyd Stars pick
33%67%
METANOIA Wolves · 2 mapsedge Keyd Stars +34%Keyd Stars · 5 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
25%40%
METANOIA Wolves · 4 mapsedge Keyd Stars +15%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
3. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Ancient
4. PickKeyd Stars take Anubis
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Nuke
6. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (41% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
METANOIA Wolves 52%Keyd Stars 48%
The model gave 52% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
METANOIA Wolves 13%Keyd Stars 87%
The model gave 87% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
METANOIA Wolves 62%Keyd Stars 38%
The model gave 62% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 69%
Series resultMETANOIA Wolves 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3