ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Procyon#119 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Procyon ban
50%31%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge ex-ODDIK +19%Procyon · 12 maps
InfernoProcyon pick
50%57%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge Procyon +7%Procyon · 10 maps
Ancientex-ODDIK pick
50%50%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Procyon · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Procyon · 6 maps
AnubisProcyon ban
50%56%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge Procyon +6%Procyon · 5 maps
Mirageex-ODDIK ban
50%67%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsedge Procyon +17%Procyon · 5 maps
Defaultex-ODDIK ban
50%50%
ex-ODDIK · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Procyon · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-ODDIK remove Mirage
2. BanProcyon remove Dust2
3. Pickex-ODDIK take Ancient
4. PickProcyon take Inferno
5. BanProcyon remove Anubis
6. Banex-ODDIK remove Default
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
ex-ODDIK 71%Procyon 29%
The model gave 71% on ex-ODDIK — the map was taken by Procyon.
Anubisprediction correct3:13
ex-ODDIK 42%Procyon 58%
The model gave 58% on Procyon — the map was taken by Procyon.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-ODDIK · 55%
Series resultProcyon 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2