ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
40%63%
Bounty Hunters · 11 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +23%Turma do Pagode · 12 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
58%60%
Bounty Hunters · 20 mapsnearly even -2%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
52%50%
Bounty Hunters · 19 mapsnearly even +2%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
42%50%
Bounty Hunters · 8 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +8%Turma do Pagode · 12 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
56%43%
Bounty Hunters · 14 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +13%Turma do Pagode · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%29%
Bounty Hunters · 6 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +31%Turma do Pagode · 3 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%50%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
3. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (60% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:1
Bounty Hunters 39%Turma do Pagode 61%
The model gave 61% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Bounty Hunters 55%Turma do Pagode 45%
The model gave 55% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Bounty Hunters 29%Turma do Pagode 71%
The model gave 71% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 66%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3