ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
40%63%
Sementes do Mal · 1 mapedge ALKA +23%ALKA · 23 maps
AncientALKA ban
50%45%
Sementes do Mal · 0 mapsedge Sementes do Mal +5%ALKA · 18 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%59%
Sementes do Mal · 1 mapedge ALKA +19%ALKA · 13 maps
MirageSementes do Mal ban
29%53%
Sementes do Mal · 3 mapsedge ALKA +24%ALKA · 11 maps
CacheSementes do Mal pick
25%50%
Sementes do Mal · 4 mapsedge ALKA +25%ALKA · 6 maps
NukeSementes do Mal ban
50%46%
Sementes do Mal · 0 mapsnearly even +4%ALKA · 9 maps
DefaultALKA ban
43%33%
Sementes do Mal · 3 mapsedge Sementes do Mal +10%ALKA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSementes do Mal remove Nuke
2. BanALKA remove Ancient
3. PickSementes do Mal take Cache
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Default
6. BanSementes do Mal remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (40% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed25:22
Sementes do Mal 27%ALKA 73%
The model gave 73% on ALKA — the map was taken by Sementes do Mal.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Sementes do Mal 52%ALKA 48%
The model gave 52% on Sementes do Mal — the map was taken by ALKA.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Sementes do Mal 28%ALKA 72%
The model gave 72% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 66%
Series resultALKA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3