ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
DAMAJUANA#232 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMEIA NOITE pick
43%38%
DAMAJUANA · 3 mapsedge DAMAJUANA +5%MEIA NOITE · 9 maps
AncientDAMAJUANA ban
50%31%
DAMAJUANA · 0 mapsedge DAMAJUANA +19%MEIA NOITE · 9 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
43%33%
DAMAJUANA · 3 mapsedge DAMAJUANA +10%MEIA NOITE · 5 maps
Dust2DAMAJUANA ban
50%45%
DAMAJUANA · 0 mapsedge DAMAJUANA +5%MEIA NOITE · 7 maps
DefaultDAMAJUANA pick
67%75%
DAMAJUANA · 2 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +8%MEIA NOITE · 4 maps
NukeMEIA NOITE ban
33%38%
DAMAJUANA · 2 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +5%MEIA NOITE · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
33%57%
DAMAJUANA · 2 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +24%MEIA NOITE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDAMAJUANA remove Dust2
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
3. PickDAMAJUANA take Default
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Mirage
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Nuke
6. BanDAMAJUANA remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (33% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
DAMAJUANA 40%MEIA NOITE 60%
The model gave 60% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDAMAJUANA · 56%
Series resultMEIA NOITE 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1