ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDETONATE pick
50%36%
LAG · 10 mapsedge LAG +14%DETONATE · 10 maps
MirageLAG ban
43%30%
LAG · 10 mapsedge LAG +13%DETONATE · 6 maps
NukeLAG pick
64%57%
LAG · 10 mapsedge LAG +7%DETONATE · 3 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
63%50%
LAG · 12 mapsedge LAG +13%DETONATE · 0 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
64%43%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +21%DETONATE · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%33%
LAG · 5 mapsedge LAG +34%DETONATE · 2 maps
CacheLAG ban
50%60%
LAG · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +10%DETONATE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Cache
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickLAG take Nuke
4. PickDETONATE take Inferno
5. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
6. BanLAG remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (67% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
LAG 78%DETONATE 22%
The model gave 78% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
LAG 67%DETONATE 33%
The model gave 67% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 79%
Series resultLAG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2