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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
38%71%
Villainous · 9 mapsedge Overtake Sector +33%Overtake Sector · 17 maps
Infernopossible decider
46%56%
Villainous · 9 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 12 maps
AncientVillainous ban
25%46%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +21%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
46%57%
Villainous · 9 mapsedge Overtake Sector +11%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
57%42%
Villainous · 3 mapsedge Villainous +15%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
CacheOvertake Sector ban
50%63%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
DefaultOvertake Sector ban
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Ancient
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Default
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
6. BanVillainous remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (46% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:5
Villainous 42%Overtake Sector 58%
The model gave 58% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Villainous.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Villainous 18%Overtake Sector 82%
The model gave 82% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Villainous 65%Overtake Sector 35%
The model gave 65% on Villainous — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 78%
Series resultOvertake Sector 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3