ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · win 2:1series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
48%50%
Yawara · 17 mapsnearly even -2%Bounty Hunters · 20 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
20%56%
Yawara · 6 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +36%Bounty Hunters · 21 map
AncientYawara ban
50%38%
Yawara · 12 mapsedge Yawara +12%Bounty Hunters · 12 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%43%
Yawara · 12 mapsedge Yawara +7%Bounty Hunters · 10 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
58%60%
Yawara · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%56%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +6%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
57%50%
Yawara · 3 mapsedge Yawara +7%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickYawara take Mirage
4. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
6. BanYawara remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Yawara 51%Bounty Hunters 49%
The model gave 51% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Yawara 45%Bounty Hunters 55%
The model gave 55% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Yawara 63%Bounty Hunters 37%
The model gave 63% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 84%
Series resultYawara 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3