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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MEIA NOITE#230 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Low Cortisol BR#183 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMEIA NOITE ban
31%40%
MEIA NOITE · 9 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +9%Low Cortisol BR · 1 map
MirageLow Cortisol BR pick
38%60%
MEIA NOITE · 9 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +22%Low Cortisol BR · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
45%50%
MEIA NOITE · 7 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +5%Low Cortisol BR · 2 maps
DefaultMEIA NOITE pick
80%50%
MEIA NOITE · 6 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +30%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
CacheLow Cortisol BR ban
33%50%
MEIA NOITE · 5 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +17%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
NukeMEIA NOITE ban
38%50%
MEIA NOITE · 4 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +12%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
InfernoLow Cortisol BR ban
57%50%
MEIA NOITE · 3 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +7%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMEIA NOITE remove Nuke
2. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Cache
3. PickMEIA NOITE take Default
4. PickLow Cortisol BR take Mirage
5. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Inferno
6. BanMEIA NOITE remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
MEIA NOITE 43%Low Cortisol BR 57%
The model gave 57% on Low Cortisol BR — the map was taken by Low Cortisol BR.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
MEIA NOITE 42%Low Cortisol BR 58%
The model gave 58% on Low Cortisol BR — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
MEIA NOITE 38%Low Cortisol BR 62%
The model gave 63% on Low Cortisol BR — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteLow Cortisol BR · 61%
Series resultMEIA NOITE 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3