ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
42%56%
Just Swing · 8 mapsedge Kaleido +14%Kaleido · 12 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
42%62%
Just Swing · 8 mapsedge Kaleido +20%Kaleido · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%42%
Just Swing · 5 mapsnearly even +2%Kaleido · 8 maps
CacheKaleido ban
67%25%
Just Swing · 8 mapsedge Just Swing +42%Kaleido · 4 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Kaleido · 4 maps
NukeJust Swing pick
67%50%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +17%Kaleido · 2 maps
AnubisKaleido ban
50%33%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +17%Kaleido · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
2. BanKaleido remove Cache
3. PickJust Swing take Nuke
4. PickKaleido take Ancient
5. BanKaleido remove Anubis
6. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (44% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
Just Swing 69%Kaleido 31%
The model gave 69% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Just Swing 33%Kaleido 67%
The model gave 67% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Swing · 57%
Series resultKaleido 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2