ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
67%50%
ALKA · 26 mapsedge ALKA +17%MEIA NOITE · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%29%
ALKA · 20 mapsedge ALKA +21%MEIA NOITE · 10 maps
MirageMEIA NOITE pick
56%38%
ALKA · 12 mapsedge ALKA +18%MEIA NOITE · 9 maps
InfernoMEIA NOITE ban
59%57%
ALKA · 13 mapsnearly even +2%MEIA NOITE · 3 maps
NukeALKA ban
46%44%
ALKA · 9 mapsnearly even +2%MEIA NOITE · 5 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
45%33%
ALKA · 7 mapsedge ALKA +12%MEIA NOITE · 5 maps
DefaultALKA ban
33%80%
ALKA · 2 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +47%MEIA NOITE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Default
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Inferno
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Mirage
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
6. BanALKA remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
ALKA 49%MEIA NOITE 51%
The model gave 51% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Dust2prediction correct16:12
ALKA 69%MEIA NOITE 31%
The model gave 69% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
ALKA 71%MEIA NOITE 29%
The model gave 71% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 66%
Series resultALKA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3