ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yawara#156 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
13%41%
METANOIA Wolves · 11 mapsedge Yawara +28%Yawara · 18 maps
Dust2possible decider
42%50%
METANOIA Wolves · 15 mapsedge Yawara +8%Yawara · 12 maps
AncientMETANOIA Wolves pick
62%53%
METANOIA Wolves · 9 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +9%Yawara · 13 maps
AnubisYawara pick
33%57%
METANOIA Wolves · 2 mapsedge Yawara +24%Yawara · 10 maps
CacheYawara ban
25%20%
METANOIA Wolves · 4 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +5%Yawara · 6 maps
DefaultMETANOIA Wolves ban
44%67%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsedge Yawara +23%Yawara · 2 maps
InfernoYawara ban
38%57%
METANOIA Wolves · 4 mapsedge Yawara +19%Yawara · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
2. BanYawara remove Cache
3. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Ancient
4. PickYawara take Anubis
5. BanYawara remove Inferno
6. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Default
DeciderDust2 (42% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
METANOIA Wolves 62%Yawara 38%
The model gave 62% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by Yawara.
Anubisprediction missed16:14
METANOIA Wolves 25%Yawara 75%
The model gave 75% on Yawara — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Dust2prediction correct12:16
METANOIA Wolves 42%Yawara 58%
The model gave 58% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 66%
Series resultYawara 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3