ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#105 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Huns#123 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2The Huns pick
67%60%
Rare Atom · 20 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%The Huns · 16 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
60%24%
Rare Atom · 11 mapsedge Rare Atom +36%The Huns · 13 maps
AncientRare Atom ban
57%54%
Rare Atom · 10 mapsnearly even +3%The Huns · 9 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
73%56%
Rare Atom · 11 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%The Huns · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
55%33%
Rare Atom · 7 mapsedge Rare Atom +22%The Huns · 8 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
50%56%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge The Huns +6%The Huns · 14 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
63%50%
Rare Atom · 4 mapsedge Rare Atom +13%The Huns · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
3. PickRare Atom take Cache
4. PickThe Huns take Dust2
5. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
6. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (55% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
Rare Atom 50%The Huns 50%
The model gave 50% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by The Huns.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Rare Atom 60%The Huns 40%
The model gave 60% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 77%
Series resultThe Huns 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2