ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
62%65%
regain · 9 mapsnearly even -3%Marsborne · 16 maps
Infernoregain pick
53%67%
regain · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +14%Marsborne · 14 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
41%62%
regain · 13 mapsedge Marsborne +21%Marsborne · 9 maps
Dust2regain ban
46%62%
regain · 9 mapsedge Marsborne +16%Marsborne · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%63%
regain · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +7%Marsborne · 4 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%50%
regain · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 8 maps
AnubisMarsborne ban
60%70%
regain · 1 mapedge Marsborne +10%Marsborne · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickMarsborne take Ancient
5. BanMarsborne remove Anubis
6. Banregain remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (56% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct3:13
regain 39%Marsborne 61%
The model gave 61% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
regain 36%Marsborne 64%
The model gave 64% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 70%
Series resultMarsborne 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2