AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernomXm ban
50%33%
bullpeek · 0 mapsedge bullpeek +17%mXm · 2 maps
Miragebullpeek pick
40%60%
bullpeek · 1 mapedge mXm +20%mXm · 1 map
Dust2bullpeek ban
50%60%
bullpeek · 0 mapsedge mXm +10%mXm · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbullpeek remove Dust2
2. BanmXm remove Inferno
3. Pickbullpeek take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
bullpeek 53%mXm 47%
The model gave 53% on bullpeek — the map was taken by mXm.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
bullpeek 28%mXm 72%
The model gave 72% on mXm — the map was taken by mXm.
Model check result
Model favoritemXm · 50%
Series resultmXm 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2