?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Endless Journey#172 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEntropy pick
50%50%
Entropy · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Endless Journey · 2 maps
MirageEndless Journey pick
42%67%
Entropy · 8 mapsedge Endless Journey +25%Endless Journey · 2 maps
AnubisEndless Journey ban
45%50%
Entropy · 7 mapsedge Endless Journey +5%Endless Journey · 0 maps
Dust2Endless Journey ban
57%50%
Entropy · 3 mapsedge Entropy +7%Endless Journey · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
29%50%
Entropy · 3 mapsedge Endless Journey +21%Endless Journey · 2 maps
OverpassEntropy ban
38%60%
Entropy · 4 mapsedge Endless Journey +22%Endless Journey · 1 map
NukeEntropy ban
50%63%
Entropy · 0 mapsedge Endless Journey +13%Endless Journey · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Nuke
2. BanEndless Journey remove Anubis
3. PickEntropy take Ancient
4. PickEndless Journey take Mirage
5. BanEndless Journey remove Dust2
6. BanEntropy remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (29% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
Entropy 48%Endless Journey 52%
The model gave 52% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Entropy.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Entropy 26%Endless Journey 74%
The model gave 74% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEndless Journey · 53%
Series resultEntropy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2