AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · win 13:3series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 13:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
40%50%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapedge bullpeek +10%bullpeek · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%50%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapedge bullpeek +10%bullpeek · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
Phantom Academy 40%bullpeek 60%
The model gave 60% on bullpeek — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom Academy · 51%
Series resultPhantom Academy 13:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1