Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BERG#192 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BERG ban
70%50%
Leo · 16 mapsedge Leo +20%BERG · 0 maps
AnubisLeo pick
33%33%
Leo · 11 mapsnearly even +0%BERG · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
46%50%
Leo · 9 mapsnearly even -4%BERG · 0 maps
NukeBERG pick
44%67%
Leo · 5 mapsedge BERG +23%BERG · 2 maps
MirageBERG ban
63%60%
Leo · 4 mapsnearly even +3%BERG · 1 map
InfernoLeo ban
60%60%
Leo · 1 mapnearly even +0%BERG · 1 map
OverpassLeo ban
50%40%
Leo · 0 mapsedge Leo +10%BERG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Overpass
2. BanBERG remove Dust2
3. PickLeo take Anubis
4. PickBERG take Nuke
5. BanBERG remove Mirage
6. BanLeo remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (46% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Leo 26%BERG 74%
The model gave 74% on BERG — the map was taken by Leo.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Leo 49%BERG 51%
The model gave 51% on BERG — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 67%
Series resultLeo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2