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European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Julie&Cieloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eternal premium#208 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJulie&Cie ban
43%50%
Julie&Cie · 3 mapsedge eternal premium +7%eternal premium · 4 maps
NukeJulie&Cie ban
50%45%
Julie&Cie · 0 mapsedge Julie&Cie +5%eternal premium · 7 maps
AnubisJulie&Cie pick
50%29%
Julie&Cie · 2 mapsedge Julie&Cie +21%eternal premium · 3 maps
Dust2eternal premium ban
33%50%
Julie&Cie · 5 mapsedge eternal premium +17%eternal premium · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%67%
Julie&Cie · 3 mapsedge eternal premium +24%eternal premium · 2 maps
Mirageeternal premium ban
33%29%
Julie&Cie · 2 mapsnearly even +4%eternal premium · 3 maps
Defaulteternal premium pick
60%50%
Julie&Cie · 1 mapedge Julie&Cie +10%eternal premium · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJulie&Cie remove Nuke
2. Baneternal premium remove Dust2
3. PickJulie&Cie take Anubis
4. Picketernal premium take Default
5. Baneternal premium remove Mirage
6. BanJulie&Cie remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (43% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Julie&Cie 53%eternal premium 47%
The model gave 53% on Julie&Cie — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Julie&Cie 36%eternal premium 64%
The model gave 64% on eternal premium — the map was taken by Julie&Cie.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Julie&Cie 43%eternal premium 57%
The model gave 57% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Model check result
Model favoriteeternal premium · 55%
Series resulteternal premium 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3