NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Color pick
64%50%
Color · 7 mapsedge Color +14%HYPERSPIRIT · 12 maps
InfernoColor ban
57%50%
Color · 3 mapsedge Color +7%HYPERSPIRIT · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
56%50%
Color · 5 mapsedge Color +6%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
AncientHYPERSPIRIT ban
70%50%
Color · 6 mapsedge Color +20%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT ban
57%36%
Color · 3 mapsedge Color +21%HYPERSPIRIT · 7 maps
CacheColor ban
43%67%
Color · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +24%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
DefaultHYPERSPIRIT pick
60%63%
Color · 1 mapnearly even -3%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanColor remove Cache
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Ancient
3. PickColor take Dust2
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Default
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Anubis
6. BanColor remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
Color 25%HYPERSPIRIT 75%
The model gave 75% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by Color.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Color 58%HYPERSPIRIT 42%
The model gave 58% on Color — the map was taken by Color.
Model check result
Model favoriteColor · 61%
Series resultColor 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2