Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#75 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bushido Wildcats#73 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Metizport ban
50%69%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +19%Bushido Wildcats · 25 maps
NukeMetizport pick
54%50%
Metizport · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Bushido Wildcats · 16 maps
MirageBushido Wildcats pick
67%60%
Metizport · 8 mapsedge Metizport +7%Bushido Wildcats · 16 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%60%
Metizport · 8 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +10%Bushido Wildcats · 6 maps
AnubisBushido Wildcats ban
63%67%
Metizport · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Bushido Wildcats · 5 maps
CacheMetizport ban
50%55%
Metizport · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +5%Bushido Wildcats · 7 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
60%40%
Metizport · 6 mapsedge Metizport +20%Bushido Wildcats · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Dust2
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
3. PickMetizport take Nuke
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Mirage
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Anubis
6. BanMetizport remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Metizport 54%Bushido Wildcats 46%
The model gave 54% on Metizport — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
Metizport 57%Bushido Wildcats 43%
The model gave 57% on Metizport — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 52%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2