Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
50%62%
Leo · 10 mapsedge ASTRAL +12%ASTRAL · 22 maps
Dust2Leo pick
70%50%
Leo · 16 mapsedge Leo +20%ASTRAL · 12 maps
AnubisLeo ban
33%67%
Leo · 11 mapsedge ASTRAL +34%ASTRAL · 8 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
50%36%
Leo · 6 mapsedge Leo +14%ASTRAL · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%47%
Leo · 4 mapsedge Leo +16%ASTRAL · 11 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
60%40%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +20%ASTRAL · 11 maps
DefaultLeo ban
50%60%
Leo · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Default
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. PickLeo take Dust2
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
6. BanLeo remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (63% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Leo 68%ASTRAL 32%
The model gave 68% on Leo — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
Leo 67%ASTRAL 33%
The model gave 67% on Leo — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 63%
Series resultASTRAL 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2