Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2UNO MILLE pick
44%65%
Fluxo · 5 mapsedge UNO MILLE +21%UNO MILLE · 13 maps
InfernoFluxo pick
43%64%
Fluxo · 3 mapsedge UNO MILLE +21%UNO MILLE · 7 maps
AnubisFluxo ban
50%67%
Fluxo · 2 mapsedge UNO MILLE +17%UNO MILLE · 5 maps
MirageUNO MILLE ban
67%44%
Fluxo · 2 mapsedge Fluxo +23%UNO MILLE · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%67%
Fluxo · 2 mapsedge UNO MILLE +17%UNO MILLE · 5 maps
OverpassFluxo ban
50%64%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge UNO MILLE +14%UNO MILLE · 7 maps
AncientUNO MILLE ban
29%57%
Fluxo · 3 mapsedge UNO MILLE +28%UNO MILLE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Overpass
2. BanUNO MILLE remove Mirage
3. PickFluxo take Inferno
4. PickUNO MILLE take Dust2
5. BanUNO MILLE remove Ancient
6. BanFluxo remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
Fluxo 36%UNO MILLE 64%
The model gave 64% on UNO MILLE — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Fluxo 28%UNO MILLE 72%
The model gave 72% on UNO MILLE — the map was taken by UNO MILLE.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Fluxo 30%UNO MILLE 70%
The model gave 70% on UNO MILLE — the map was taken by UNO MILLE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNO MILLE · 53%
Series resultUNO MILLE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3