Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
6666#80 in the world · loss 11:13series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 11:13
BERG#192 in the world · win 13:11The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBERG ban
43%50%
6666 · 3 mapsedge BERG +7%BERG · 0 maps
Anubis6666 ban
40%33%
6666 · 1 mapedge 6666 +7%BERG · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
33%50%
6666 · 2 mapsedge BERG +17%BERG · 0 maps
Nuke6666 ban
40%60%
6666 · 1 mapedge BERG +20%BERG · 1 map
MirageBERG ban
60%50%
6666 · 1 mapedge 6666 +10%BERG · 0 maps
Overpass6666 ban
50%40%
6666 · 0 mapsedge 6666 +10%BERG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban6666 remove Overpass
2. BanBERG remove Mirage
3. Ban6666 remove Nuke
4. BanBERG remove Ancient
5. Ban6666 remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
6666 33%BERG 67%
The model gave 67% on BERG — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBERG · 50%
Series resultBERG 11:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1