Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 13:6series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 13:6
SINQU REHTIloss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSINQU REHTI ban
60%50%
ASTRAL · 21 mapedge ASTRAL +10%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsnearly even +0%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
47%50%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsnearly even -3%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
31%50%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge SINQU REHTI +19%SINQU REHTI · 2 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
36%50%
ASTRAL · 10 mapsedge SINQU REHTI +14%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
AnubisSINQU REHTI ban
67%50%
ASTRAL · 8 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
DefaultSINQU REHTI ban
60%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
2. BanSINQU REHTI remove Anubis
3. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
4. BanSINQU REHTI remove Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
6. BanSINQU REHTI remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
ASTRAL 36%SINQU REHTI 64%
The model gave 64% on SINQU REHTI — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 71%
Series resultASTRAL 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1