Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 13:5series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 13:5
BERG#192 in the world · loss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBERG ban
60%50%
ASTRAL · 21 mapedge ASTRAL +10%BERG · 0 maps
Dust2ASTRAL ban
50%50%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsnearly even +0%BERG · 0 maps
MirageBERG ban
47%50%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsnearly even -3%BERG · 0 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
36%50%
ASTRAL · 10 mapsedge BERG +14%BERG · 0 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
31%60%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge BERG +29%BERG · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
64%40%
ASTRAL · 7 mapsedge ASTRAL +24%BERG · 1 map
DefaultBERG ban
60%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%BERG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
2. BanBERG remove Mirage
3. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
4. BanBERG remove Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Dust2
6. BanBERG remove Default
DeciderAnubis (64% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
ASTRAL 72%BERG 28%
The model gave 72% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 71%
Series resultASTRAL 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1