CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
58%50%
Atreides · 8 mapsedge Atreides +8%DONSTU · 6 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
33%46%
Atreides · 5 mapsedge DONSTU +13%DONSTU · 9 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
50%47%
Atreides · 0 mapsnearly even +3%DONSTU · 11 maps
InfernoAtreides pick
60%44%
Atreides · 6 mapsedge Atreides +16%DONSTU · 5 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
80%50%
Atreides · 11 mapsedge Atreides +30%DONSTU · 0 maps
OverpassDONSTU pick
43%60%
Atreides · 10 mapsedge DONSTU +17%DONSTU · 1 map
NukeDONSTU ban
56%33%
Atreides · 5 mapsedge Atreides +23%DONSTU · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAtreides remove Anubis
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickAtreides take Inferno
4. PickDONSTU take Overpass
5. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
6. BanAtreides remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:16
Atreides 53%DONSTU 47%
The model gave 53% on Atreides — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Atreides 34%DONSTU 66%
The model gave 66% on DONSTU — the map was taken by Atreides.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Atreides 65%DONSTU 35%
The model gave 65% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 51%
Series resultAtreides 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3