Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · win 13:7series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 13:7
SINQU REHTIloss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Anubispossible decider
40%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge SINQU REHTI +10%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
OverpassBERG ban
40%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge SINQU REHTI +10%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
BERG 50%SINQU REHTI 50%
The model gave 50% on BERG — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU REHTI · 50%
Series resultBERG 13:7
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1