Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
GAMEHARMONYloss 7:13series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 7:13
Leo#89 in the world · win 13:7The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GAMEHARMONY ban
33%70%
GAMEHARMONY · 2 mapsedge Leo +37%Leo · 16 maps
AnubisGAMEHARMONY ban
50%33%
GAMEHARMONY · 0 mapsedge GAMEHARMONY +17%Leo · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%42%
GAMEHARMONY · 0 mapsedge GAMEHARMONY +8%Leo · 8 maps
NukeGAMEHARMONY ban
50%44%
GAMEHARMONY · 0 mapsedge GAMEHARMONY +6%Leo · 5 maps
MirageLeo ban
50%63%
GAMEHARMONY · 0 mapsedge Leo +13%Leo · 4 maps
InfernoLeo ban
50%60%
GAMEHARMONY · 0 mapsedge Leo +10%Leo · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGAMEHARMONY remove Nuke
2. BanLeo remove Inferno
3. BanGAMEHARMONY remove Anubis
4. BanLeo remove Mirage
5. BanGAMEHARMONY remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
GAMEHARMONY 58%Leo 42%
The model gave 58% on GAMEHARMONY — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 67%
Series resultLeo 7:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1