Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
Aimhaus#381 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 10:13
Coalesce#242 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2
50%50%
Aimhaus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Coalesce · 2 maps
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Aimhaus 50%Coalesce 50%
The model gave 50% on Aimhaus — the map was taken by Coalesce.
Model check result
Model favoriteAimhaus · 50%
Series resultCoalesce 10:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1