Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 13:11series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 13:11
Coalesce#242 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
68%60%
Leo · 15 mapsedge Leo +8%Coalesce · 1 map
AnubisLeo ban
33%50%
Leo · 11 mapsedge Coalesce +17%Coalesce · 0 maps
AncientCoalesce ban
42%50%
Leo · 8 mapsedge Coalesce +8%Coalesce · 0 maps
NukeLeo ban
44%50%
Leo · 5 mapsedge Coalesce +6%Coalesce · 0 maps
MirageCoalesce ban
63%50%
Leo · 4 mapsedge Leo +13%Coalesce · 0 maps
InfernoLeo ban
60%50%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +10%Coalesce · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Nuke
2. BanCoalesce remove Mirage
3. BanLeo remove Inferno
4. BanCoalesce remove Ancient
5. BanLeo remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (68% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Leo 59%Coalesce 41%
The model gave 59% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 67%
Series resultLeo 13:11
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1