ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisLFO 9 pick
40%67%
Secret · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +27%LFO 9 · 2 maps
Dust2LFO 9 ban
40%50%
Secret · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +10%LFO 9 · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
Secret · 1 mapedge Secret +10%LFO 9 · 2 maps
MirageSecret ban
50%71%
Secret · 0 mapsedge LFO 9 +21%LFO 9 · 3 maps
AncientLFO 9 ban
50%50%
Secret · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 9 · 0 maps
CacheSecret pick
67%50%
Secret · 2 mapsedge Secret +17%LFO 9 · 0 maps
NukeSecret ban
40%60%
Secret · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +20%LFO 9 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSecret remove Mirage
2. BanLFO 9 remove Ancient
3. PickSecret take Cache
4. PickLFO 9 take Anubis
5. BanLFO 9 remove Dust2
6. BanSecret remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Secret 57%LFO 9 43%
The model gave 57% on Secret — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Anubisprediction correct13:16
Secret 27%LFO 9 73%
The model gave 73% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Model check result
Model favoriteSecret · 59%
Series resultLFO 9 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2