CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
66%50%
ALKA · 25 mapsedge ALKA +16%BORRACHEIROS · 6 maps
AncientBORRACHEIROS pick
50%54%
ALKA · 20 mapsnearly even -4%BORRACHEIROS · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
59%36%
ALKA · 13 mapsedge ALKA +23%BORRACHEIROS · 7 maps
MirageALKA ban
53%46%
ALKA · 11 mapsedge ALKA +7%BORRACHEIROS · 9 maps
NukeBORRACHEIROS ban
46%33%
ALKA · 9 mapsedge ALKA +13%BORRACHEIROS · 5 maps
DefaultALKA ban
33%60%
ALKA · 2 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +27%BORRACHEIROS · 6 maps
CacheBORRACHEIROS ban
45%50%
ALKA · 7 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +5%BORRACHEIROS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Default
2. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Cache
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickBORRACHEIROS take Ancient
5. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Nuke
6. BanALKA remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (59% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
ALKA 68%BORRACHEIROS 32%
The model gave 68% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
ALKA 54%BORRACHEIROS 46%
The model gave 54% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 77%
Series resultALKA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2