CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
69%60%
ALKA · 28 mapsedge ALKA +9%Mira · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
50%40%
ALKA · 22 mapsedge ALKA +10%Mira · 1 map
InfernoMira ban
53%50%
ALKA · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Mira · 0 maps
MirageALKA ban
53%50%
ALKA · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Mira · 0 maps
NukeALKA ban
43%60%
ALKA · 10 mapsedge Mira +17%Mira · 1 map
CacheMira ban
45%50%
ALKA · 7 mapsedge Mira +5%Mira · 0 maps
DefaultMira pick
40%60%
ALKA · 1 mapedge Mira +20%Mira · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Nuke
2. BanMira remove Inferno
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickMira take Default
5. BanMira remove Cache
6. BanALKA remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
ALKA 63%Mira 37%
The model gave 63% on ALKA — the map was taken by Mira.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
ALKA 50%Mira 50%
The model gave 50% on ALKA — the map was taken by Mira.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 63%
Series resultMira 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2