CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Keyd Stars ban
50%69%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge ALKA +19%ALKA · 28 maps
AncientALKA pick
50%48%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsnearly even +2%ALKA · 23 maps
Infernoex-Keyd Stars ban
50%56%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge ALKA +6%ALKA · 12 maps
MirageALKA ban
50%53%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsnearly even -3%ALKA · 11 maps
NukeALKA ban
50%47%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsnearly even +3%ALKA · 11 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%45%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +5%ALKA · 7 maps
Defaultex-Keyd Stars pick
50%40%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +10%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Dust2
2. BanALKA remove Nuke
3. Pickex-Keyd Stars take Default
4. PickALKA take Ancient
5. BanALKA remove Mirage
6. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
ex-Keyd Stars 29%ALKA 71%
The model gave 71% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
ex-Keyd Stars 55%ALKA 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Keyd Stars — the map was taken by ex-Keyd Stars.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
ex-Keyd Stars 47%ALKA 53%
The model gave 53% on ALKA — the map was taken by ex-Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 57%
Series resultex-Keyd Stars 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3