DACH Masters Season 5 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG Academy#215 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BERG#192 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BERG ban
62%50%
BIG Academy · 9 mapsedge BIG Academy +12%BERG · 0 maps
OverpassBERG ban
67%50%
BIG Academy · 8 mapsedge BIG Academy +17%BERG · 0 maps
AncientBIG Academy pick
67%50%
BIG Academy · 5 mapsedge BIG Academy +17%BERG · 0 maps
InfernoBIG Academy ban
50%50%
BIG Academy · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BERG · 0 maps
AnubisBIG Academy ban
50%50%
BIG Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BERG · 0 maps
MirageBERG pick
50%50%
BIG Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BERG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
2. BanBERG remove Overpass
3. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
4. PickBERG take Mirage
5. BanBERG remove Dust2
6. BanBIG Academy remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:5
BIG Academy 47%BERG 53%
The model gave 53% on BERG — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Overpassprediction correct13:5
BIG Academy 69%BERG 31%
The model gave 69% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 64%
Series resultBIG Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2