European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SAW#61 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientInner Circle Academy pick
43%38%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +5%SAW · 4 maps
Dust2SAW pick
33%56%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge SAW +23%SAW · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%33%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +30%SAW · 2 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%67%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsedge SAW +17%SAW · 5 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy ban
60%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +17%SAW · 3 maps
MirageSAW ban
60%29%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +31%SAW · 3 maps
OverpassSAW ban
67%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%SAW · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanSAW remove Overpass
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Ancient
4. PickSAW take Dust2
5. BanSAW remove Mirage
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (63% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Inner Circle Academy 58%SAW 42%
The model gave 58% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Inner Circle Academy 26%SAW 74%
The model gave 74% on SAW — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 67%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2